December 6, 2009 4:04:12 PM CET
the_purplecow (Nov 20 2009, 04:52 PM) said: > original post
No sh!t, Sherlock.
**
Last i saw Wilders was not riding particularly high in Amsterdam, especially compared with (say) the Rotterdam/Den Haag conurbation - the traditional home of racism and xenophobia in Nederland.
Recently Verdonk sobered up long enough to attempt to re-launch her 'Trots op Nederland' party in Amsterdam. Voters were promised a meet-and-greet with the party muckety-mucks, and free refreshments. Precisely 34 people showed up. So it looks like the Nazis won't be gaining a toe-hold in Amsterdam at least anytime soon.
Don't confuse the number of people showing up at events with polls, or even the result on election night.
By far the largest number of Wilders- and Verdonk-supporters are so-called 'inactives', people who have nothing to do and don't want to have anything to do with society.
They hardly ever turn up to vote, as they're not interested in politics because they view politicians as robbers. Their interest in society stops when they leave their front door. As such, they never turn up in polls because by far most of them are not interested in taking part.
The first time they showed themselves in mass numbers was during the national elections of 2002, when the vast majority of them voted for Pim Fortuyn's party. After that they disappeared from the radar again.
It didn't show in turnout numbers, at first. Only later did intensive research show that the final turnout number didn't differ that much from the 1998 elections because many PvdA voters stayed home. Had they also gone to the voting booth, national turnout would have been much higher, showing the influence of the 'new' electorate (the inactives) in 2002.
The major victory for the PvdA in 2006 was in part the result of a mass turnout of immigrant voters, mainly Turkish, Moroccan and Surinamese. The average turnout of voters in this group hovered between 30 and 35% in the municipal elections of 1994, 1998, 2002, but shot up to between 80 and 85% in '06, resulting in a smashing victory for the PvdA, which was then in opposition to the right-wing CDA/VVD/D66 government, in which Rita Verdonk was immigration minister.
Relatively few people go to political party events. Take your average Wilders event, for instance; a couple of hundred people, no lines outside, some chairs even remain empty inside the venue.
But his supporters will go out to vote in massive numbers in The Hague and Almere next year, and even though many Wilders fans will stay home in Rotterdam, Amsterdam and Utrecht because he's not competing there, I can guarantee you that at least a third of his electorate will swing Verdonk's way, and that of the right-wing VVD (which in Amsterdam and Rotterdam is already trying to put on a Wilders-Light cloak).